Dolfin - Investment Update: October 2018
- 04 mins 43 secs
Dolfin - Investment Update: October 2018
Dolfin’s Head of Advisory, Georgios Mouskoundi talks through the main themes that will be featured in this month’s investment update with our Chief Marketing Officer, Andrew Carrier.
This month, Dolfin remains negative on rates due to inflationary and policy factors, while being positive and balanced between US and Europe on equities. Watch the full video to find out Dolfin’s views on Brexit, impact of recent events on Italian bond market and Japan’s Shinzo Abe visiting China.
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Hello and welcome. I'm joined today by our head of advisory georgians condi george. Good morning. Good morning. And it's the second october was you and i sit here filming this video on your team is just about to release its investment update for the month. Can we begin by you giving us just over you that document, please. We're looking at the main asset classes who begin with rates. We remain negative for the time being, with treasury sitting around about three percent we fought a lot of the upside is limited for the time being and certainly a lot of policy and some inflation reaction expectations affected in we move on to credit, we favor high. You're particularly leaning towards the european markets where we feel there's a lot of opportunities there, particularly with good quality european companies ve equities. We remain positive again. We still like the us, although we do feel certainly looking at the european markets on a relative basis, that evaluation and also on performance grounds, we feel that as an opportunity to start investing there as well. So this month i thought perhaps you'd give our viewers a bit of a liver world. Tour let's start close to home with brexit we have to talk about it. It's another big month for the breast in negotiations. We've got the u summit coming up this month. How do you think that's likely to unfold ? Well, i think is going to be very difficult in sunny i think is going to go to the wire. I think if you look at sal's boat, which is the most recent reason that they had, there was no real progress and i hear that's likely to be the case. If we look towards this summit on the eighteenth and nineteenth october, there's only gonna be further discussions and i think that's going to be quite difficult, certainly for the markets and i think most recently i've read reports that one in five companies were actually looking for brexit, no deal and i think that's like to be the case is going forward. Let's leave the troubles of brexit britain behind us for a moment and moved to italy so italian debt came under increased pressure this month. We saw the yield on the ten year bond pushed beyond that three percent mark, mostly because of the fiscal measures. That this populist government has enacted much more aggressive than investors were expecting. I think what's your take on that there's gonna be a very difficult period, certainly for italian investments for the time being, if you'd look at the budget, for example, it's run about two point four percent above what she really should be, and i think it's going to be very challenging to get that through, particularly needs to go past you as well. I think the main problem italy's going face over the coming months is really the credit agencies and i think it's going to be significant downgrades for italian bonds over the coming months, and i think that's goingto move on impact a lot of italian assets present from a dolphin perspective. I think i'm going to stay clear, send for italy for the time being. So for the purposes of this discussion, at least, let's shy away from europe in general for a moment and go go to the far east because of some really interesting developments going on there. We've got shinzo, abby, the japanese prime minister visiting china, he's, the first japanese leader to do that since i think twenty eleven. What you think that's going to do with economic outlook for the region ? Well, i think it's gonna be positive. I think any situation where you get a second a third largest economy meeting together and certainly having a sort of collaborative cooperative tone, i think, would be very beneficial positive, certainly for the region. I think if you take the trade rhetoric that's going on in the background, as well as the fact that these two countries are looking to develop their relationship even further, given that backdrop, i think it's a positive move, certainly for the region and sony for the countries as well. So you touch there, of course, on the trade was going on with the u s and china there's some interesting developments. Recently the came out and commented about the trade war, saying, if we do see escalation, that the impact is actually gonna be most negative on the us itself. I wonder what i'll take on that. Well, i think generally speaking, i think is gonna be any winners. Really, if you look at it from the most recent government or statistics that have come out an increase of terrorists, anything in the region of ten percent from this narrow perspective indicates the gbp slightly to four miles to the extent of one percent, and i think that's going to be significant impact for anyone if there is likely to be any particular positive move. I think it's going to be for china certainly is it looks for trading partners elsewhere in the world, and i think the u s war lightly, perhaps from not necessary benefit to the extent that they're thinking about. So as i listen to you, i'm reminded of the chinese curse. May you live in interesting times, he's definitely interesting times, and i wonder in these sorts of times what of the investment ideas that you tend to bring to the dolphin clients ? Well, typically, when the markets are directionless or very much by sentiment here, a dolphin we have for advisor and discretion for photos, high conviction ideas, we identify investment, certainly from an equity perspective and also from a credit or fixed income prospective companies with good quality balance sheets on company, certainly from inequities, which would have anything in the region of eight to ten percent upside over six to twelve month period and i feel that's, an attractive proposition in these kind of climate. George. Thank you. Some great ideas and insights there from you in the investment management team. Thank you, and thank you for joining us. Please do visit our website, download your copy of our october investment update on we look forward to see you again in the next video.