Many people have been fascinated by the idea of using artificial intelligence (AI) for communication between men and machines. While HAL in Stanley Kubrick’s 2001: A Space Odyssey turned out to be less helpful to its human crew, its modern incarnation has been fascinating millions.
Get up! Stand up! Stand up for… (EM) central bank independence
September 2025 – As summer ends and it’s “back to school” (and markets), we can reflect on a relatively stable summer where carry rather than price appreciation has driven emerging market (EM) bond returns. This year’s impressive EM fixed income performance continues: hard currency sovereign debt returned 8.7% to the end of August and local currency was up 14% (data from Bloomberg).
Improvements in fiscal competence and policymaking are transforming perceptions of emerging market debt.
In the first two articles of our series, we followed our two decision-making angels, the “rational angel” and the “instinctive angel”, as they grappled with emotional biases and the limits of knowledge. We continue our reflection by looking at our brain’s tendency to simplify and streamline the data available to us, and the selfdeception that our instinctive angel derives from that simplification.
It has long been known that humans can make decisions in two ways, a rational, thoughtful way, and an instinctive, rash way. Goethe’s Faust called it the “two souls” that dwelt in his heart. More recently, the behavioural economist Daniel Kahneman called it the “two systems of thought” in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow. In lay parlance, people often speak about the two angels sitting on their shoulders and whispering into their ears, a cautious, “rational angel”, and a bold, “instinctive angel”.
In the first article of our series “Best Styles X Behavioural Finance”, we looked at the two angels that guide our decision-making, the “rational angel” and the “instinctive angel”, how the latter may lead us to follow emotional or socially influenced trends, and how our Best Styles strategy harnesses our rational brain by remaining stoic and objective.
Our instinctive angel may also twist what our rational angel tells us, however, and create the illusion of knowledge.
Emerging market debt has shown resilience in a year that has brought significant market volatility and uncertainty in global trade relations. In this environment, we think short duration bonds could be a useful way to diversify portfolios.
This is the first in a series of more in-depth papers that will provide a deeper insight into our Growth Equity team’s investment philosophy and process.
Many multi asset funds rely on either fundamental or quantitative analysis to determine their investment process. But what if those approaches could be combined, complementing their strengths?
Picture this: you’re running late, circling a car park in a crowded shopping mall. Every parking spot seems impossibly tight. Squeezing your car in feels like a test of nerves and patience. But what if all it takes is a tap on your app. Your car glides effortlessly into the tight space, parking perfectly while you watch on….
India’s economic narrative is shifting—again. And this time, with more conviction.
GDP data for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 (ending March 2025) came in ahead of expectations, reinforcing our core thesis: India is entering a new phase of cyclical acceleration. But this is not just a story of one quarter’s growth. It’s a sign of a broader inflection—across GDP, corporate earnings, credit, and liquidity—fueled by a decisive pivot in policymaking.
A large and diverse asset class comprising countries with improved policymaking and stronger institutions merits a reassessment.
