From conflict to compute: Navigating emerging markets in 2026

Jorry Nøddekær, Lead Manager of the Polar Capital Emerging Market Stars Fund, explains how recent Middle East tensions have introduced short-term volatility across emerging markets but argues that the broader technology cycle continues to dominate, with markets currently more constrained by compute power than by oil. He discusses how portfolio positioning has shifted across regions, with greater caution in areas more exposed to energy shocks and continued conviction in North Asian technology and Latin American markets. He believes that, despite near-term risks, a strengthening earnings cycle and improving fundamentals support a positive outlook for the asset class.